Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 62.71%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Monaco had a probability of 18.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.88%) and 3-1 (7.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.12%), while for a Monaco win it was 1-2 (4.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.