Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 52.49%. A win for Turkey had a probability of 24.23% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest Turkey win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Netherlands in this match.