Australian A-League Gameweek 29
Victory
May 4, 2025 8.00am
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Newcastle Jets
  • Kasey Bos 47' goal
  • Jordi Valadon 67' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kota Mizunuma 60'
  • goal Clayton Taylor 83'

Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Apr 25, 2025 10.35am
Macarthur 1 - 2 Victory
Goals scored
48
Top scorer
Nishan Velupillay

Newcastle Jets

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Apr 26, 2025 8.00am
Newcastle Jets 0 - 1 Western Sydney
Goals scored
43
Top scorer
Lachlan Rose

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 66.44%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 16.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.84%) and 3-1 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.35%), while for a Newcastle Jets win it was 1-2 (4.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.

Result

Melbourne Victory 66.44% ▼ (-0.39)
Draw 17.49% ▲ (+0.16)
Newcastle Jets 16.07% ▲ (+0.24)

Both Teams to Score: 

63.74% ▼ (-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5 71.47% ▼ (-0.27)
Under 2.5 28.53% ▲ (+0.27)
Over 3.5 50.6% ▼ (-0.33)
Under 3.5 49.4% ▲ (+0.33)
Over 4.5 31.29% ▼ (-0.30)
Under 4.5 68.71% ▲ (+0.30)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5 91.94% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 0.5 8.05% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 1.5 71.66% ▼ (-0.38)
Under 1.5 28.34% ▲ (+0.38)

Newcastle Jets Goals

Over 0.5 69.32% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 0.5 30.68% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 1.5 33.07% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 1.5 66.93% ▼ (-0.12)

Score analysis

Melbourne Victory 66.44%
Draw 17.49%
Newcastle Jets 16.07%
Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 9.26% ▲ (+0.04)
2-0 @ 7.84% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 7.78% ▼ (-0.04)
3-0 @ 6.58% ▼ (-0.05)
1-0 @ 6.22% ▲ (+0.05)
4-1 @ 4.9% ▼ (-0.06)
3-2 @ 4.6% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 4.15% ▼ (-0.06)
4-2 @ 2.89% ▼ (-0.03)
5-1 @ 2.47% ▼ (-0.05)
5-0 @ 2.09% ▼ (-0.05)
5-2 @ 1.46% ▼ (-0.03)
4-3 @ 1.14% ▼ (-0.01)
6-1 @ 1.04% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 4.03%
Total : 66.44%
Draw
1-1 @ 7.35% ▲ (+0.08)
2-2 @ 5.47% ▲ (+0.04)
0-0 @ 2.47% ▲ (+0.04)
3-3 @ 1.81% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 17.49%
Newcastle Jets
1-2 @ 4.35% ▲ (+0.06)
0-1 @ 2.92% ▲ (+0.06)
2-3 @ 2.16% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 1.73% ▲ (+0.04)
1-3 @ 1.71% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 16.07%

Head to Head

Australian A-League Gameweek 18
Newcastle Jets
Feb 8, 2025 6.00am
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT McDonald Jones Stadium
Victory
  • Mark Natta 21' yellowcard
  • Mark Natta 21' yellowcard
  • Thomas Aquilina 33' goal
  • Lachlan Bayliss 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Lachlan Bayliss 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Lachlan Rose 54' goal
  • Kosta Grozos 90'+9' goal
  • Kosta Grozos 90'+9' goal
  • Clayton Taylor 90'+14' goal
  • Clayton Taylor 90'+14' goal
  • Lachlan Rose 90'+20' goal
  • Lachlan Rose 90'+20' goal
  • yellowcard Ryan Teague 44'
  • yellowcard Ryan Teague 44'
  • yellowcard Adama Traore 57'
  • yellowcard Adama Traore 57'
  • yellowcard Mitchell Langerak 82'
  • yellowcard Mitchell Langerak 82'
Australian A-League Gameweek 15
Newcastle Jets
Feb 3, 2024 7.00am
1
1
HT : 0 2
FT McDonald Jones Stadium
Victory
  • Apostolos Stamatelopoulos 88' goal
  • Apostolos Stamatelopoulos 88' goal
  • goal Roderick Miranda 20'
  • goal Roderick Miranda 20'
  • yellowcard Damien Da Silva 31'
  • yellowcard Damien Da Silva 31'
  • yellowcard Ryan Teague 87'
  • yellowcard Ryan Teague 87'
  • yellowcard Connor Chapman 90'
  • yellowcard Connor Chapman 90'
Australian A-League Gameweek 2
Victory
Oct 29, 2023 6.00am
5
3
HT : 4 1
FT Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Newcastle Jets
  • Bruno Fornaroli 8' goal
  • Bruno Fornaroli 31' goal
  • Bruno Fornaroli 40' goal
  • Bruno Fornaroli 45'+3' goal
  • Nishan Velupillay 55' goal
  • goal Mark Natta 6'
  • yellowcard Carl Jenkinson 27'
  • goal Clayton Taylor 49'
  • yellowcard Trent Buhagiar 58'
  • goal Clayton Taylor 74'
Australian A-League Gameweek 16
Newcastle Jets
Feb 12, 2023 4.00am
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT McDonald Jones Stadium
Victory
  • Beka Mikeltadze 37' goal
  • Kosta Grozos 58' goal
  • goal Nishan Velupillay 51'
Australian A-League Gameweek 5
Victory
Nov 4, 2022 8.45am
4
0
HT : 1 0
FT AAMI Park
Newcastle Jets
  • Jake Brimmer 16' goal
  • Chris Ikonomidis 50' goal
  • Nicholas D'Agostino 54' goal
  • Bruno Fornaroli 89' goal
Australian A-League Gameweek 24
Newcastle Jets
Apr 16, 2022 10.45am
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Victory
  • Jordan Elsey 41' yellowcard
  • Savvas Siatravanis 65' goal
  • goal Nicholas D'Agostino 6'
  • yellowcard Ben Folami 58'
  • goal Francesco Margiotta 90'+3'

Form Data

Macarthur 1 - 2 Victory
Victory 0 - 2 Auckland FC
Wellington 2 - 3 Victory
Victory 5 - 3 Adelaide United
Western Sydney 4 - 2 Victory
Victory 3 - 0 Central Coast
Newcastle Jets 0 - 1 Western Sydney
Sydney FC 3 - 2 Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets 6 - 0 Central Coast
Newcastle Jets 1 - 2 Wellington
Macarthur 3 - 3 Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets 2 - 6 Western Utd