Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mechelen win with a probability of 50.11%. A win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 26.34% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mechelen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.97%). The likeliest Sint-Truiden win was 1-2 (6.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.