Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mechelen win with a probability of 41.28%. A win for Genk had a probability of 35.85% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mechelen win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.19%) and 2-0 (5.35%). The likeliest Genk win was 1-2 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.