Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 40.78%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 35.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.19%) and 0-2 (5.82%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 2-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.