Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cambridge United win with a probability of 36.53%. A win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cambridge United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.88%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Shrewsbury Town win was 0-1 (10.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cambridge United would win this match.