Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 38.76%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 34.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (10.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.