Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 40.38%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 34.84% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.37%) and 2-0 (6.31%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-2 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
40.38% ( 0.11)	24.77% ( 0.03)	34.84% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 58.32% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.17% (

-0.13)

44.83% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.82% (

-0.13)

67.18% (

0.13)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.84% (

-0)

22.16% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.45% (

-0)

55.55% (

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.92% (

-0.14)

25.08% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.23% (

-0.19)

59.77% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 40.38%

Athletic Bilbao 34.84%

Draw 24.77%

Aston Villa	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
2-1 @ 8.73% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 6.31% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.03% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.65% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.14% ( -0) Other @ 2.4% Total : 40.38%	1-1 @ 11.58% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.77%	1-2 @ 8.01% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.69% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.32% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.69% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.67% Total : 34.84%