Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 51.28%. A win for AVS had a probability of 25.84% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest AVS win was 1-2 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.