League Two Gameweek 4
Sep 1, 2026 7.45pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT The Nigel Eady County Ground Stadium
  • Aaron Drinan 13' goal
  • Ben Middlemas 71' goal
  • Jack Thomson 87' yellowcard
  • Louis Millard 90'+4' goal
  • goal Oliver Lynch 2'
  • yellowcard Cameron Humphreys 58'

Swindon Town vs Port Vale - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Swindon Town

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 3.00pm
Oldham 3 - 0 Swindon
Goals scored
5
Top scorer
Aaron Drinan

Port Vale

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 12.30pm
Port Vale 0 - 0 Crewe
Goals scored
2
Top scorer
Oliver Lynch

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 50.44%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 24.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.31%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (6.39%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.

Result

Swindon Town 50.44% ▼ (-0.03)
Draw 24.69% ▲ (+0.09)
Port Vale 24.87% ▼ (-0.03)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.53% ▼ (-0.18)

Goals

Over 1.5 77.28% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 1.5 22.72% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 2.5 54.29% ▼ (-0.19)
Under 2.5 45.71% ▲ (+0.19)
Over 3.5 32.04% ▼ (-0.21)
Under 3.5 67.96% ▲ (+0.20)
Over 4.5 19.08% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 4.5 80.92% ▲ (+0.16)

First Half Winner

Swindon Town 36.22% ▲ (+0.02)
Draw 43.16% ▲ (+0.04)
Port Vale 20.62% ▼ (-0.08)

Team To Score First

Swindon Town 58.64%
No Goal 6.47% ▲ (+0.05)
Port Vale 34.89% ▼ (-0.05)

Corners

Over 8 62.74% ▲ (+0.18)
Equal 8 10.8% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 8 26.45% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 9 51.3% ▲ (+0.16)
Equal 9 11.44% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 9 37.26% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 10.5 40.19% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 10.5 59.81% ▼ (-0.15)

Swindon Town Goals

Over 1.5 49.74% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 1.5 50.26% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 2.5 24.19% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 2.5 75.81% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 3.5 10.12% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 3.5 89.88% ▲ (+0.09)

Port Vale Goals

Over 0.5 60.68%
Under 0.5 39.32%
Over 1.5 28.34% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 1.5 71.66% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 2.5 10.4% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 2.5 89.6% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 3.5 3.04% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 96.96% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Swindon Town 50.46%
Draw 24.7%
Port Vale 24.87%
Swindon Town
1-0 @ 9.89% ▲ (+0.07)
2-1 @ 9.62%
2-0 @ 8.31% ▲ (+0.06)
3-1 @ 5.14% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 4.85% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.82% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 9.83% ▼ (-0.10)
Total : 50.46%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.19% ▲ (+0.04)
0-0 @ 6.47% ▲ (+0.05)
2-2 @ 5.49%
3-3 @ 1.26% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.29% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 24.7%
Port Vale
0-1 @ 6.39% ▲ (+0.05)
1-2 @ 6.16%
0-2 @ 3.47%
1-3 @ 2.34% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 2.13% ▼ (-0.03)
0-3 @ 1.63%
Other @ 2.75% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 24.87%

Head to Head

League Two Gameweek 31
Feb 8, 2025 12.30pm
3
3
HT : 2 2
FT County Ground
  • Will Wright 20' goal
  • Daniel Butterworth 45' goal
  • Jake Cain 57' yellowcard
  • Joel Cotterill 63' goal
  • goal Jaheim Headley 31'
  • goal Lorent Tolaj 40'
  • yellowcard Kyle John 49'
  • yellowcard Ben Heneghan 56'
  • yellowcard Nathan Smith 66'
  • goal Lorent Tolaj 87'
League Two Gameweek 8
Sep 28, 2024 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT Vale Park
  • Ben Garrity 59' yellowcard
  • George Byers 61' goal
  • Brandon Cover 85' goal
  • Tom Sang 87' yellowcard
  • George Byers 90' yellowcard
  • goal Will Wright 89'
  • yellowcard Joel Cotterill 90'+4'
League Two
May 19, 2022 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Vale Park
  • James Wilson 8' goal
  • James Wilson 42' yellowcard
  • Tom Pett 59' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ellis Iandolo 56'
  • yellowcard Dion Conroy 95'
  • yellowcard Harry McKirdy 120'+1'
League Two
May 15, 2022 12.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT County Ground
  • Harry McKirdy 26' goal
  • Josh Davison 32' yellowcard
  • Harry McKirdy 68' goal
  • Louis Reed 77' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Harry Charsley 42'
  • goal James Wilson 83'
League Two Gameweek 27
Jan 15, 2022 3.00pm
1
3
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Kian Harratt 26' goal
  • Lucas 45'+3' redcard
  • goal Jonny Williams 20'
  • goal Ben Gladwin 45'+5'
  • goal Chris Smith 69' (OG)
  • yellowcard Jordan Lyden 81'
League Two Gameweek 7
Sep 11, 2021 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Jack Payne 13' yellowcard
  • Tyreece Simpson 49' goal
  • Tyreece Simpson 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Alex Gilbert 55' yellowcard
  • Harry Parsons 83' yellowcard
  • goal Ben Garrity 22'
  • yellowcard Daniel Jones 27'
  • goal Ben Garrity 81'