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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 53.21%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 23.65% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.68%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 1-2 (6.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
Result | ||
MK Dons | Draw | Colchester United |
53.21% ( 0.31) | 23.15% ( -0.06) | 23.65% ( -0.26) |
Both teams to score 56.32% ( -0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.93% ( -0) | 44.07% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.55% ( -0) | 66.45% ( 0) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.46% ( 0.11) | 16.54% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.7% ( 0.2) | 46.3% ( -0.2) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.47% ( -0.22) | 32.53% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.94% ( -0.25) | 69.05% ( 0.25) |
Score Analysis |
MK Dons | Draw | Colchester United |
2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.68% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.71% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.22% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.64% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.23% Total : 53.21% | 1-1 @ 10.87% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.38% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.15% | 1-2 @ 6.11% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 6.04% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.5% Total : 23.65% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 95 | 46 | 49 | 92 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 85 |
P | Wrexham | 45 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 87 | 51 | 36 | 85 |
4 | MK Dons | 45 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 77 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 21 | 7 | 17 | 71 | 66 | 5 | 70 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 70 |
7 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 68 |
8 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 71 | 67 | 4 | 67 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 45 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 66 |
10 | Walsall | 45 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 68 | 68 | 0 | 65 |
11 | Gillingham | 45 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 63 |
12 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 62 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 62 |
14 | Notts County | 45 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 89 | 85 | 4 | 61 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 57 |
16 | Morecambe | 45 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 64 | 78 | -14 | 57 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 61 | 72 | -11 | 55 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 45 | 15 | 9 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 74 | 80 | -6 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 64 | 80 | -16 | 50 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 57 | 72 | -15 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 58 | 79 | -21 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 9 | 14 | 22 | 55 | 80 | -25 | 41 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 45 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 43 | 78 | -35 | 39 |
> League Two Full Table |