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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 49.25%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 24.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.4%) and 1-2 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.3%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 1-0 (8.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 24.74% | 26% | 49.25% |
| Both teams to score 48.61% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.19% | 54.81% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.89% | 76.11% |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.55% | 37.45% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.77% | 74.23% |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.71% | 22.29% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.25% | 55.74% |
| Score Analysis |
| Crawley Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 8.2% 2-1 @ 6.04% 2-0 @ 4.03% 3-1 @ 1.98% 3-2 @ 1.49% 3-0 @ 1.32% Other @ 1.69% Total : 24.74% | 1-1 @ 12.3% 0-0 @ 8.35% 2-2 @ 4.54% Other @ 0.82% Total : 26% | 0-1 @ 12.52% 0-2 @ 9.4% 1-2 @ 9.24% 0-3 @ 4.71% 1-3 @ 4.62% 2-3 @ 2.27% 0-4 @ 1.77% 1-4 @ 1.73% Other @ 2.99% Total : 49.25% |