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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 45.07%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Stevenage had a probability of 27.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.9%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.92%), while for a Stevenage win it was 0-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Stevenage |
| 45.07% | 27.77% | 27.15% |
| Both teams to score 45.61% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.36% | 59.63% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.04% | 79.96% |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.6% | 26.4% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.44% | 61.56% |
| Stevenage Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.98% | 38.02% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.21% | 74.79% |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Stevenage |
| 1-0 @ 13.36% 2-0 @ 8.9% 2-1 @ 8.61% 3-0 @ 3.95% 3-1 @ 3.82% 3-2 @ 1.85% 4-0 @ 1.32% 4-1 @ 1.27% Other @ 1.98% Total : 45.06% | 1-1 @ 12.92% 0-0 @ 10.03% 2-2 @ 4.16% Other @ 0.65% Total : 27.76% | 0-1 @ 9.71% 1-2 @ 6.25% 0-2 @ 4.69% 1-3 @ 2.02% 0-3 @ 1.51% 2-3 @ 1.34% Other @ 1.63% Total : 27.15% |