Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 40.27%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 32.36% and a draw had a probability of 27.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 0-1 (9.44%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.