Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 54.1%. A draw had a probability of 24.83% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 21.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%) , while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.