Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 46.85%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 27.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.38%) and 0-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 (7.69%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.