Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 43.91%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 31.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.66%) and 0-2 (6.24%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 2-1 (7.29%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.