Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 44.79%. A draw had a probability of 28.96% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 26.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.52%) and 2-1 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%) , while for a Gillingham win it was 0-1 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood.