Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 44.74%. A draw had a probability of 28.44% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 26.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.04%) , while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.