Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnet win with a probability of 44.42%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 30.69% and a draw had a probability of 24.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnet win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 0-1 (7.58%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.