Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 58.47%. A draw had a probability of 23.37% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 18.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.67%) and 2-1 (10.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%) , while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 0-1 (5.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.