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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 63.65%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 16.19%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
Result | ||
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Colchester United |
63.65% ( 0.5) | 20.16% ( -0.15) | 16.19% ( -0.35) |
Both teams to score 53.78% ( -0.28) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.63% ( 0.02) | 41.36% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.24% ( 0.02) | 63.76% ( -0.02) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.66% ( 0.14) | 12.34% ( -0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.84% ( 0.3) | 38.16% ( -0.3) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.35% ( -0.42) | 38.64% ( 0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.61% ( -0.4) | 75.39% ( 0.4) |
Score Analysis |
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Colchester United |
2-0 @ 10.43% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 9.98% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.28% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 6.92% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 3.81% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 3.62% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.56% Total : 63.64% | 1-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 4.77% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.14% Total : 20.16% | 0-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.07% Total : 16.19% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 95 | 46 | 49 | 92 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 85 |
P | Wrexham | 45 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 87 | 51 | 36 | 85 |
4 | MK Dons | 45 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 77 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 21 | 7 | 17 | 71 | 66 | 5 | 70 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 70 |
7 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 68 |
8 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 71 | 67 | 4 | 67 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 45 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 66 |
10 | Walsall | 45 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 68 | 68 | 0 | 65 |
11 | Gillingham | 45 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 63 |
12 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 62 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 62 |
14 | Notts County | 45 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 89 | 85 | 4 | 61 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 57 |
16 | Morecambe | 45 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 64 | 78 | -14 | 57 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 61 | 72 | -11 | 55 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 45 | 15 | 9 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 74 | 80 | -6 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 64 | 80 | -16 | 50 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 57 | 72 | -15 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 58 | 79 | -21 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 9 | 14 | 22 | 55 | 80 | -25 | 41 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 45 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 43 | 78 | -35 | 39 |
> League Two Full Table |