Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 62.34%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 15.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.04%) and 1-2 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-0 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.