Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 47.32%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 27.68% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (8.16%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 1-0 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.