League One Gameweek 11
Oct 17, 2026 12.30pm
Stadium mk

MK Dons vs Luton Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

MK Dons

All competitions
Last game
Oct 10, 2026 3.00pm
MK Dons 1 - 5 Reading
Goals scored
9
Top scorer
Aaron Collins

Luton Town

All competitions
Last game
Oct 10, 2026 3.00pm
Wycombe 1 - 4 Luton
Goals scored
16
Top scorer
Nahki Wells

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a MK Dons win with a probability of 40.69%. A win for Luton Town has a probability of 33.78% and a draw has a probability of 25.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.05%). The likeliest Luton Town win is 1-2 (8.35%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.28%).

Result

MK Dons 40.69% ▼ (-6.32)
Draw 25.49% ▼ (-0.02)
Luton Town 33.78% ▲ (+6.27)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.19% ▲ (+2.88)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.62% ▲ (+1.36)
Under 1.5 21.38% ▼ (-1.36)
Over 2.5 56.62% ▲ (+2.85)
Under 2.5 43.38% ▼ (-2.85)
Over 3.5 33.31% ▲ (+1.98)
Under 3.5 66.69% ▼ (-1.97)
Over 4.5 19.15% ▲ (+0.99)
Under 4.5 80.85% ▼ (-1.00)

First Half Winner

MK Dons 30.51% ▼ (-3.96)
Draw 41.43% ▼ (-0.01)
Luton Town 28.07% ▲ (+3.97)

Team To Score First

MK Dons 49.11% ▼ (-4.97)
No Goal 5.83% ▼ (-0.42)
Luton Town 45.06% ▲ (+5.39)

Corners

Over 8 62.58% ▲ (+1.65)
Equal 8 10.93% ▲ (+0.69)
Under 8 26.49% ▼ (-2.34)
Over 9 51.01% ▲ (+0.77)
Equal 9 11.57% ▲ (+0.88)
Under 9 37.42% ▼ (-1.65)
Over 10.5 39.79% ▼ (-0.12)
Under 10.5 60.21% ▲ (+0.12)

MK Dons Goals

Over 1.5 43.33% ▼ (-3.43)
Under 1.5 56.67% ▲ (+3.43)
Over 2.5 19.2% ▼ (-2.29)
Under 2.5 80.8% ▲ (+2.29)
Over 3.5 7.12% ▼ (-1.11)
Under 3.5 92.88% ▲ (+1.10)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5 69.55% ▲ (+5.75)
Under 0.5 30.45% ▼ (-5.76)
Over 1.5 37.83% ▲ (+6.49)
Under 1.5 62.17% ▼ (-6.49)
Over 2.5 15.5% ▲ (+3.65)
Under 2.5 84.5% ▼ (-3.65)
Over 3.5 5.34% ▲ (+1.66)
Under 3.5 94.66% ▼ (-1.66)

Score analysis

MK Dons 40.68%
Draw 25.49%
Luton Town 33.77%
MK Dons
2-1 @ 9.07% ▼ (-0.46)
1-0 @ 8.31% ▼ (-1.62)
2-0 @ 6.05% ▼ (-1.66)
3-1 @ 4.19% ▼ (-0.36)
3-0 @ 3.43% ▼ (-0.98)
3-2 @ 2.86% ▼ (-0.07)
Other @ 6.77% ▼ (-1.19)
Total : 40.68%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.28% ▼ (-0.51)
2-2 @ 6.43% ▲ (+0.63)
0-0 @ 5.83% ▼ (-0.42)
3-3 @ 1.6% ▲ (+0.21)
Other @ 0.35% ▲ (+0.08)
Total : 25.49%
Luton Town
1-2 @ 8.35% ▲ (+1.61)
0-1 @ 7.18% ▲ (+0.59)
0-2 @ 4.69% ▲ (+0.69)
1-3 @ 3.53% ▲ (+0.71)
2-3 @ 2.58% ▲ (+0.38)
0-3 @ 2.45% ▲ (+0.71)
Other @ 4.99% ▲ (+1.58)
Total : 33.77%

Head to Head

EFL Trophy Gameweek 4
Oct 9, 2018 7.45pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Kenilworth Road Stadium (Luton, Bedfordshire)
  • Alan Sheehan 17' goal
  • Kazenga LuaLua 29' goal
  • Jorge Grant 60' goal
  • Jack Senior 93' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Chuks Aneke 36'
  • yellowcard Oran Jackson 72'
  • yellowcard Mitch Hancox 91'
League One
Apr 16, 2005 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Peter Holmes 11' yellowcard
  • Ben Chorley 31' goal
  • yellowcard Trent McClenahan 20'
  • yellowcard Dean Lewington 64'
  • yellowcard Ben Chorley 81'
League One
Nov 20, 2004 3.00pm
1
4
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Wade Small 45' goal
  • Allan Smart 58' yellowcard
  • Jason Puncheon 75' yellowcard
  • goal Rowan Vine 8'
  • yellowcard Kevin Nicholls 16'
  • goal Steve Howard 45'
  • goal Steve Howard 66'
  • goal Steve Howard 83'