Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 52.42%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 23.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.