Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Getafe win with a probability of 39.75%. A win for Girona had a probability of 31.78% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Getafe win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Girona win was 0-1 (10.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Getafe would win this match.