Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 58.19%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 20.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.07%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 1-2 (5.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.