Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 43.79%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 32.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.62%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 2-1 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Barcelona |
| 32.53% ( | 23.68% ( | 43.79% ( |
| Both teams to score 61.54% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.68% ( | 40.31% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.31% ( | 62.69% ( |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.72% ( | 24.28% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.35% ( | 58.65% ( |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.28% ( | 18.72% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.91% ( | 50.09% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Barcelona |
| 2-1 @ 7.63% ( 1-0 @ 6.44% ( 2-0 @ 4.55% ( 3-1 @ 3.6% ( 3-2 @ 3.02% ( 3-0 @ 2.15% ( 4-1 @ 1.27% ( 4-2 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 2.81% Total : 32.53% | 1-1 @ 10.78% ( 2-2 @ 6.39% ( 0-0 @ 4.55% ( 3-3 @ 1.68% ( Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.68% | 1-2 @ 9.03% ( 0-1 @ 7.62% ( 0-2 @ 6.38% ( 1-3 @ 5.04% ( 2-3 @ 3.57% ( 0-3 @ 3.56% ( 1-4 @ 2.11% ( 2-4 @ 1.5% ( 0-4 @ 1.49% ( Other @ 3.48% Total : 43.79% |