La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 35

May 11, 2025 at 5.30pm UK

San Mames Barria

Athletic Bilbao
1 - 0
Alaves

Sanchez (71' og.)
Djalo (33')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Guevara (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Athletic Bilbao and Alaves, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Man Utd 4-1 Athletic Bilbao
Thursday, May 8 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Alaves

All competitions

Last Game: Alaves 0-0 Atletico
Saturday, May 3 at 1pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 59.42%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 17.36%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.97%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match.

Result
Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Alaves
59.42% ( 0.02)	23.22% ( 0.02)	17.36% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 46.53% (

-0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.7% (

-0.15)

52.3% (

0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26% (

-0.13)

74% (

0.13)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.71% (

-0.05)

17.29% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.36% (

-0.08)

47.63% (

0.09)

Alaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.25% (

-0.14)

43.75% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.08% (

-0.12)

79.92% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

Athletic Bilbao 59.41%

Alaves 17.36%

Draw 23.22%

Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Alaves
1-0 @ 13.27% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 11.64% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.63% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.82% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.63% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.99% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.47% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.33% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.05% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.55% Total : 59.41%	1-1 @ 10.97% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.7% Total : 23.22%	0-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.59% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.63% Total : 17.36%