Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 59.42%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 17.36%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.97%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match.