La Liga Gameweek 8
Oct 10, 2026 3.15pm
Estadio de Mendizorroza

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Alaves

All competitions
Last game
Sep 19, 2026 3.15pm
Athletic Bilbao 0 - 0 Alaves
Goals scored
11
Top scorer
Lucas Boyé

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Sep 20, 2026 3.15pm
Atletico 2 - 1 Real Madrid
Goals scored
16
Top scorer
Álex Baena

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 44.6%. A win for Alaves has a probability of 29.72% and a draw has a probability of 25.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Madrid win is 0-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (9.05%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Alaves win is 1-0 (7.69%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.77%).

Result

Alaves 29.72% ▼ (-0.11)
Draw 25.68% ▼ (-0.20)
Atletico Madrid 44.6% ▲ (+0.29)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.29% ▼ (-0.15)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.87% ▼ (-0.13)
Under 1.5 24.13% ▲ (+0.13)
Over 2.5 52.39% ▼ (-0.22)
Under 2.5 47.61% ▲ (+0.22)
Over 3.5 29.85% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 3.5 70.15% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 4.5 16.73% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 4.5 83.27% ▲ (+0.09)

First Half Winner

Alaves 28.07% ▲ (+1.09)
Draw 44.34% ▼ (-0.78)
Atletico Madrid 27.6% ▼ (-0.29)

Team To Score First

Alaves 45.53% ▼ (-0.86)
No Goal 6.82% ▼ (-0.09)
Atletico Madrid 47.65% ▲ (+0.95)

Corners

Over 8 61.95% ▼ (-1.93)
Equal 8 11% ▼ (-0.36)
Under 8 27.05% ▲ (+2.29)
Over 9 50.37% ▼ (-1.29)
Equal 9 11.58% ▼ (-0.66)
Under 9 38.05% ▲ (+1.93)
Over 10.5 39.18% ▼ (-0.54)
Under 10.5 60.82% ▲ (+0.54)

Alaves Goals

Over 1.5 31.79% ▼ (-0.26)
Under 1.5 68.21% ▲ (+0.26)
Over 2.5 11.7% ▼ (-0.29)
Under 2.5 88.3% ▲ (+0.29)
Over 3.5 3.56% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 3.5 96.44% ▲ (+0.10)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 75.55% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 0.5 24.45% ▼ (-0.16)
Over 1.5 44.06%
Under 1.5 55.94%
Over 2.5 20.12% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 79.88% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 3.5 7.52% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 92.48% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Alaves 29.71%
Draw 25.69%
Atletico Madrid 44.59%
Alaves
1-0 @ 7.69% ▲ (+0.08)
2-1 @ 7.26% ▲ (+0.05)
2-0 @ 4.48% ▼ (-0.04)
3-1 @ 2.85% ▼ (-0.05)
3-0 @ 2.1% ▼ (-0.07)
3-2 @ 1.98% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 3.35% ▼ (-0.05)
Total : 29.71%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.77% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 6.82% ▼ (-0.09)
2-2 @ 5.68% ▼ (-0.02)
3-3 @ 1.21% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 0.21% ▼ (-0.07)
Total : 25.69%
Atletico Madrid
0-1 @ 9.61% ▲ (+0.13)
1-2 @ 9.05% ▼ (-0.06)
0-2 @ 7.23% ▲ (+0.11)
1-3 @ 4.59% ▲ (+0.05)
0-3 @ 4.13% ▼ (-0.04)
2-3 @ 2.67% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 7.31% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 44.59%

Head to Head

La Liga Gameweek 20
Jan 18, 2026 3.15pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Riyadh Air Metropolitano
  • Alexander Sørloth 48' goal
  • Álex Baena 62' yellowcard
  • Koke  62' yellowcard
  • Antoine Griezmann 62' yellowcard
  • Robin Le Normand 78' yellowcard
  • Nahuel Molina 86' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Denis Suárez 54'
  • yellowcard Ander Guevara 55'
  • yellowcard Lucas Boyé 55'
  • yellowcard Abde Rebbach 69'
  • yellowcard Aitor Mañas 81'
La Liga
Aug 30, 2025 4.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
La Liga Gameweek 34
May 3, 2025 1.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio de Mendizorroza
  • Ander Guevara 28' yellowcard
  • Santiago Mourino 56' yellowcard
  • Antonio Blanco 63' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Cesar Azpilicueta 41'
  • yellowcard Julian Alvarez 42'
La Liga Gameweek 14
Nov 23, 2024 3.15pm
2
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
  • Angel Correa 45'+2' yellowcard
  • Antoine Griezmann 76' goal
  • Alexander Sorloth 86' goal
  • Diego Simeone 87' yellowcard
  • Julian Alvarez 90' yellowcard
  • Rodrigo De Paul 90'+6' yellowcard
  • goal Jon Guridi 7'
  • yellowcard Antonio Blanco 58'
  • yellowcard Manu Sanchez 70'
  • yellowcard Luis Garcia 75'
  • yellowcard Tomas Conechny 88'
La Liga Gameweek 32
Apr 21, 2024 5.30pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio de Mendizorroza
  • Jon Guridi 2' yellowcard
  • Javi Lopez 6' yellowcard
  • Carlos Benavidez 15' goal
  • Abdel Abqar 33' yellowcard
  • Carlos Benavidez 49' yellowcard
  • Rafa Marin 68' yellowcard
  • Luis Rioja 90'+2' goal
  • yellowcard Angel Correa 45'
  • yellowcard Cesar Azpilicueta 50'
  • yellowcard Stefan Savic 68'
La Liga Gameweek 11
Oct 29, 2023 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
  • Rodrigo Riquelme 26' goal
  • Alvaro Morata 45'+1' goal
  • Marcos Llorente 71' yellowcard
  • Mario Hermoso 71' yellowcard
  • Jan Oblak 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ruben Duarte 71'
  • yellowcard Ianis Hagi 85'
  • goal Ander Guevara 90'+6'