J1 League Gameweek 11
Oct 21, 2026 11.00am
2
0
HT : 2 0
LIVE transcosmos Stadium Nagasaki
  • Hijiri Onaga 27' yellowcard
  • Hijiri Onaga 36' goal
  • Matheus Jesus 45' goal
  • Jonathan 60' yellowcard

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

V-Varen Nagasaki

All competitions
Last game
Oct 17, 2026 7.00am
Kashima Antlers 2 - 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
Goals scored
13
Top scorer
Matheus Jesus

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

All competitions
Last game
Oct 17, 2026 6.00am
Hiroshima 3 - 0 Kyoto Sanga
Goals scored
25
Top scorer
Akito Suzuki

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win with a probability of 54.48%. A draw has a probability of 23.49% and a win for V-Varen Nagasaki has a probability of 22.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (10.13%) and 0-2 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.98%) , while for a V-Varen Nagasaki win it is 1-0 (6.34%).

Result

V-Varen Nagasaki 22.02% ▲ (+0.18)
Draw 23.49% ▲ (+0.10)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 54.48% ▼ (-0.31)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.18% ▲ (+0.03)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.66% ▼ (-0.30)
Under 1.5 24.34% ▲ (+0.29)
Over 2.5 52.05% ▼ (-0.47)
Under 2.5 47.95% ▲ (+0.47)
Over 3.5 28.56% ▼ (-0.70)
Under 3.5 71.44% ▲ (+0.69)
Over 4.5 16.63% ▼ (-0.47)
Under 4.5 83.37% ▲ (+0.47)

First Half Winner

V-Varen Nagasaki 16.5% ▼ (-0.24)
Draw 41.4% ▲ (+0.73)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 42.1% ▼ (-0.50)

Team To Score First

V-Varen Nagasaki 28.99% ▼ (-0.17)
No Goal 6.5% ▲ (+0.13)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 64.51% ▲ (+0.04)

Corners

Over 8 56.78% ▲ (+0.40)
Equal 8 11.25% ▲ (+0.16)
Under 8 31.97% ▼ (-0.54)
Over 9 45.42% ▲ (+0.22)
Equal 9 11.36% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 9 43.22% ▼ (-0.40)
Over 10.5 34.85% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 10.5 65.15% ▼ (-0.05)

V-Varen Nagasaki Goals

Over 1.5 24.54% ▼ (-0.14)
Under 1.5 75.46% ▲ (+0.13)
Over 2.5 7.63% ▼ (-0.12)
Under 2.5 92.37% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 3.5 1.81% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 3.5 98.19% ▲ (+0.11)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Goals

Over 0.5 80.79% ▼ (-0.29)
Under 0.5 19.21% ▲ (+0.29)
Over 1.5 50.51% ▼ (-0.54)
Under 1.5 49.49% ▲ (+0.54)
Over 2.5 24.49% ▼ (-0.32)
Under 2.5 75.51% ▲ (+0.32)
Over 3.5 9.57% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 3.5 90.43% ▲ (+0.17)

Score analysis

V-Varen Nagasaki 22.03%
Draw 23.5%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 54.47%
V-Varen Nagasaki
1-0 @ 6.34% ▲ (+0.05)
2-1 @ 6.02% ▲ (+0.16)
2-0 @ 3.16% ▲ (+0.10)
3-1 @ 1.78% ▼ (-0.10)
3-2 @ 1.52% ▼ (-0.05)
3-0 @ 1.51% ▲ (+0.12)
Other @ 1.7% ▼ (-0.10)
Total : 22.03%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.98% ▲ (+0.08)
0-0 @ 6.5% ▲ (+0.13)
2-2 @ 4.9% ▼ (-0.09)
3-3 @ 1.01%
Other @ 0.11% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 23.5%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0-1 @ 11.5% ▲ (+0.11)
1-2 @ 10.13% ▼ (-0.11)
0-2 @ 9.47%
0-3 @ 5.82% ▲ (+0.08)
1-3 @ 5.26% ▼ (-0.05)
2-3 @ 2.83% ▼ (-0.19)
Other @ 9.46% ▼ (-0.14)
Total : 54.47%