J1 League Gameweek 7
Sep 12, 2026 11.00am
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT transcosmos Stadium Nagasaki
  • Matheus Jesus 36' goal
  • Thiago Santana 57' goal
  • Thiago Santana 62' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Haruya Fujii 90'+6'

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

V-Varen Nagasaki

All competitions
Last game
Sep 6, 2026 11.00am
Vissel Kobe 3 - 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
Goals scored
9
Top scorer
Thiago

Nagoya Grampus

All competitions
Last game
Sep 6, 2026 10.00am
Nagoya Grampus 1 - 3 Machida Zelvia
Goals scored
7
Top scorer
Yudai Kimura

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a V-Varen Nagasaki win with a probability of 43.82%. A win for Nagoya Grampus had a probability of 30.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a V-Varen Nagasaki win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Nagoya Grampus win was 0-1 (7.56%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.

Result

V-Varen Nagasaki 43.82% ▼ (-0.16)
Draw 25.16%
Nagoya Grampus 30.99% ▲ (+0.13)

Both Teams to Score: 

55.11% ▲ (+0.16)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.5% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 1.5 24.5% ▼ (-0.06)
Over 2.5 52.24% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 2.5 47.76% ▼ (-0.15)
Over 3.5 29.69% ▲ (+0.14)
Under 3.5 70.31% ▼ (-0.13)
Over 4.5 16.8% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 4.5 83.2% ▼ (-0.07)

First Half Winner

V-Varen Nagasaki 31.31%
Draw 43.02%
Nagoya Grampus 25.67%

Team To Score First

V-Varen Nagasaki 51.07% ▲ (+0.04)
No Goal 6.89% ▼ (-0.05)
Nagoya Grampus 42.04% ▲ (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 60.59%
Equal 8 11.65%
Under 8 27.76%
Over 9 48.42%
Equal 9 12.17%
Under 9 39.41%
Over 10.5 36.84%
Under 10.5 63.16%

V-Varen Nagasaki Goals

Over 1.5 43.11% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 1.5 56.89% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 2.5 18.81% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 81.19% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 6.68% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 93.32% ▲ (+0.01)

Nagoya Grampus Goals

Over 0.5 65.72% ▲ (+0.16)
Under 0.5 34.28% ▼ (-0.16)
Over 1.5 33.04% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 1.5 66.96% ▼ (-0.19)
Over 2.5 12.63% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 2.5 87.37% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 3.5 3.85% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 96.15% ▼ (-0.04)

Score analysis

V-Varen Nagasaki 43.81%
Draw 25.15%
Nagoya Grampus 30.99%
V-Varen Nagasaki
1-0 @ 10% ▼ (-0.08)
2-1 @ 9.22% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 7.12% ▼ (-0.06)
3-1 @ 4.44% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 3.73% ▼ (-0.05)
3-2 @ 2.81% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 6.49% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 43.81%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.46%
0-0 @ 6.89% ▼ (-0.05)
2-2 @ 5.46% ▲ (+0.02)
3-3 @ 1.15% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 25.15%
Nagoya Grampus
0-1 @ 7.56%
1-2 @ 7.44% ▲ (+0.04)
0-2 @ 4.7% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.98% ▲ (+0.03)
2-3 @ 2.5% ▲ (+0.03)
0-3 @ 2.15% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.66% ▲ (+0.04)
Total : 30.99%