J1 League
Aug 15, 2026 10.55am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT City Light Stadium
  • Lucão 54' goal
  • yellowcard Shunya Yoneda 74'

Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Fagiano Okayama

All competitions
Last game
Aug 8, 2026 11.00am
Cerezo 2 - 1 Okayama

V-Varen Nagasaki

All competitions
J1 League
Last game
Aug 9, 2026 11.00am
V-Varen Nagasaki 2 - 1 Kyoto Sanga

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fagiano Okayama win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for V-Varen Nagasaki had a probability of 27.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fagiano Okayama win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest V-Varen Nagasaki win was 0-1 (8.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.

Result

Fagiano Okayama 46.37% ▲ (+0.02)
Draw 26.09% ▲ (+0.15)
V-Varen Nagasaki 27.55% ▼ (-0.15)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.37% ▼ (-0.23)

Goals

Over 1.5 72.35% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 1.5 27.65% ▲ (+0.14)
Over 2.5 47.89% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 2.5 52.11% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 3.5 26.73% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 3.5 73.27% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 4.5 14.71% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 4.5 85.29% ▲ (+0.08)

First Half Winner

Fagiano Okayama 30.61% ▲ (+0.01)
Draw 48.82% ▲ (+0.26)
V-Varen Nagasaki 20.57% ▼ (-0.27)

Team To Score First

Fagiano Okayama 53.81% ▲ (+0.68)
No Goal 7.66% ▲ (+0.08)
V-Varen Nagasaki 38.53% ▼ (-0.75)

Corners

Over 8 64.2% ▼ (-0.97)
Equal 8 11.24% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 8 24.56% ▲ (+0.92)
Over 9 52.09% ▼ (-0.92)
Equal 9 12.11% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 9 35.8% ▲ (+0.97)
Over 10.5 40.23% ▼ (-0.79)
Under 10.5 59.77% ▲ (+0.79)

Fagiano Okayama Goals

Over 1.5 42.53% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 57.47% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 18.7% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 81.3% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 6.47% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 93.53% ▼ (-0.02)

V-Varen Nagasaki Goals

Over 0.5 62.66% ▼ (-0.16)
Under 0.5 37.34% ▲ (+0.16)
Over 1.5 28.23% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 1.5 71.77% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 2.5 9.15% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 90.85% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 2.64% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 97.36% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Fagiano Okayama 46.36%
Draw 26.08%
V-Varen Nagasaki 27.56%
Fagiano Okayama
1-0 @ 11.65% ▲ (+0.08)
2-1 @ 9.13% ▲ (+0.03)
2-0 @ 7.81% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 4.56% ▼ (-0.03)
3-0 @ 3.81% ▲ (+0.02)
3-2 @ 2.99% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 6.41%
Total : 46.36%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.4% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 7.66% ▲ (+0.08)
2-2 @ 5.09% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.06% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 26.08%
V-Varen Nagasaki
0-1 @ 8.34% ▼ (-0.01)
1-2 @ 6.74% ▼ (-0.05)
0-2 @ 4.26% ▼ (-0.05)
1-3 @ 2.36% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 1.8% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 1.48% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 2.58% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 27.56%