J1 League Gameweek 8
Sep 19, 2026 10.30am
transcosmos Stadium Nagasaki

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

V-Varen Nagasaki

All competitions
Last game
Sep 12, 2026 11.00am
V-Varen Nagasaki 2 - 0 Nagoya Grampus
Goals scored
9
Top scorer
Thiago

Cerezo Osaka

All competitions
Last game
Sep 12, 2026 11.00am
Hiroshima 6 - 1 Cerezo
Goals scored
6
Top scorer
Solomon Sakuragawa

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a V-Varen Nagasaki win with a probability of 40.35%. A win for Cerezo Osaka has a probability of 34.04% and a draw has a probability of 25.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a V-Varen Nagasaki win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Cerezo Osaka win is 0-1 (8.36%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.83%).

Result

V-Varen Nagasaki 40.35% (+1.85)
Draw 25.61% (-0.02)
Cerezo Osaka 34.04% (-1.79)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.91% (+1.57)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.77% (+0.51)
Under 1.5 24.23% (-0.51)
Over 2.5 52.27% (+0.50)
Under 2.5 47.73% (-0.50)
Over 3.5 30.27% (+0.86)
Under 3.5 69.73% (-0.86)
Over 4.5 16.87% (+0.66)
Under 4.5 83.13% (-0.66)

First Half Winner

V-Varen Nagasaki 31.04% (+3.97)
Draw 41.51% (-0.27)
Cerezo Osaka 27.45% (-3.70)

Team To Score First

V-Varen Nagasaki 48.7% (+2.33)
No Goal 6.51% (-0.36)
Cerezo Osaka 44.79% (-1.97)

Corners

Over 8 67.49% (+4.08)
Equal 8 10.68% (-0.59)
Under 8 21.83% (-3.50)
Over 9 55.65% (+4.29)
Equal 9 11.84% (-0.22)
Under 9 32.51% (-4.09)
Over 10.5 43.74% (+4.11)
Under 10.5 56.26% (-4.11)

V-Varen Nagasaki Goals

Over 1.5 40.83% (+2.04)
Under 1.5 59.17% (-2.04)
Over 2.5 17.14% (+1.33)
Under 2.5 82.86% (-1.33)
Over 3.5 6.12% (+1.07)
Under 3.5 93.88% (-1.07)

Cerezo Osaka Goals

Over 0.5 68.7% (-1.25)
Under 0.5 31.3% (+1.25)
Over 1.5 35.74% (-1.18)
Under 1.5 64.26% (+1.19)
Over 2.5 13.92% (-0.57)
Under 2.5 86.08% (+0.57)
Over 3.5 4.47% (-0.45)
Under 3.5 95.53% (+0.44)

Score analysis

V-Varen Nagasaki 40.37%
Draw 25.61%
Cerezo Osaka 34.03%
V-Varen Nagasaki
1-0 @ 9.37% (+0.21)
2-1 @ 8.73% (+0.15)
2-0 @ 6.51% (+0.38)
3-1 @ 4.04% (+0.05)
3-0 @ 3.03% (+0.14)
3-2 @ 2.8% (+0.01)
Other @ 5.89% (+0.94)
Total : 40.37%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.83% (+0.06)
0-0 @ 6.51% (-0.36)
2-2 @ 5.89% (+0.13)
3-3 @ 1.15% (+0.06)
Other @ 0.23% (+0.13)
Total : 25.61%
Cerezo Osaka
0-1 @ 8.36% (-0.32)
1-2 @ 7.97% (-0.35)
0-2 @ 5.16% (-0.42)
1-3 @ 3.48% (+0.05)
2-3 @ 2.56% (+0.09)
0-3 @ 2.26% (-0.32)
Other @ 4.24% (-0.56)
Total : 34.03%