Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moldova win with a probability of 62.37%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 13.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moldova win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.18%) and 1-2 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.62%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 1-0 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.