Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 43.63%. A draw had a probability of 29.09% and a win for Estudiantes had a probability of 27.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.73%) and 2-1 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.36%) , while for a Estudiantes win it was 0-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.