Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mamelodi Sundowns win with a probability of 49.57%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 25.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mamelodi Sundowns win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.15%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (7.6%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.