Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mamelodi Sundowns win with a probability of 44.36%. A win for Stade Malien Bamako had a probability of 28.74% and a draw had a probability of 26.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mamelodi Sundowns win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.39%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Stade Malien Bamako win was 1-0 (9.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.