Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mamelodi Sundowns win with a probability of 65.47%. A draw had a probability of 22.69% and a win for Stade Malien Bamako had a probability of 11.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mamelodi Sundowns win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.16%) and 3-0 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.36%) , while for a Stade Malien Bamako win it was 0-1 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.