Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 48.37%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 27.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.