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FA Cup

Port Vale
FA Cup | First Round
Nov 5, 2022 at 3pm UK
Vale Park
Exeter City

Port Vale
2 - 3
Exeter

Politic (25'), Butterworth (87')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Brown (43', 66'), Collins (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Port Vale and Exeter City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Port Vale

All competitions
Last Game: Wycombe 2-2 Port Vale
Tuesday, November 1 at 7.45pm in League One

Exeter City

All competitions
Last Game: Plymouth 4-2 Exeter
Monday, October 31 at 8pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 51.43%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (7.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.

Result
Port ValeDrawExeter City
51.43% (0.010999999999996 0.01)24.57% (0.013000000000002 0.01)24% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 52.13% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.19% (-0.080000000000005 -0.08)49.8% (0.080000000000005 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.19% (-0.071999999999999 -0.07)71.8% (0.072000000000003 0.07)
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.64% (-0.028000000000006 -0.03)19.35% (0.029 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.86% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)51.14% (0.044999999999995 0.04)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.64% (-0.063999999999993 -0.06)35.35% (0.064 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.88% (-0.065000000000001 -0.07)72.11% (0.066000000000003 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Port Vale 51.42%
    Exeter City 24%
    Draw 24.56%
Port ValeDrawExeter City
1-0 @ 11.23% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.59% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-0 @ 9.23% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.25% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.05% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.73% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.16% (-0.004 -0)
4-0 @ 2.07%
4-2 @ 1.12% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.99%
Total : 51.42%
1-1 @ 11.68% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.84% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.99% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-3 @ 0.95% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.56%
0-1 @ 7.11% (0.011 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.07% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
0-2 @ 3.7% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-3 @ 2.11% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.73% (-0.006 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.28% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.99%
Total : 24%

Head to Head
Aug 6, 2022 3pm
Exeter
4-0
Port Vale
Kite (24'), Brown (38' pen., 72'), Nombe (75')
Diabate (30'), Sweeney (35')
May 7, 2022 3pm
Exeter
0-1
Port Vale

Stubbs (45+3')
Wilson (36')
Martin (43'), Wilson (45+1'), Stone (84')
Mar 22, 2022 7.45pm
Port Vale
0-0
Exeter

Diabate (26')
Apr 2, 2021 3pm
Port Vale
1-0
Exeter
Robinson (2')
Sep 19, 2020 3pm
Exeter
0-2
Port Vale
Conlon (21'), Rodney (72')