Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 40.51%. A win for Maccabi Tel Aviv had a probability of 35.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.99%) and 0-2 (6.16%). The likeliest Maccabi Tel Aviv win was 2-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.