Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 36.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.84%) and 0-2 (5.51%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 2-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.