Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 43.28%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 32.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.7%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-2 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Sparta Rotterdam would win this match.