Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 52.97%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 24.75% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.16%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (6.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
