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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 54.68%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 24.57% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.75%) and 3-1 (6.65%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 54.68% | 20.75% | 24.57% |
| Both teams to score 66.11% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.3% | 31.7% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.79% | 53.21% |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.18% | 11.81% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.95% | 37.04% |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.97% | 25.03% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.3% | 59.7% |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 9.34% 2-0 @ 6.75% 3-1 @ 6.65% 1-0 @ 6.32% 3-0 @ 4.8% 3-2 @ 4.61% 4-1 @ 3.55% 4-0 @ 2.57% 4-2 @ 2.46% 5-1 @ 1.52% 4-3 @ 1.14% 5-0 @ 1.1% 5-2 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.84% Total : 54.68% | 1-1 @ 8.75% 2-2 @ 6.47% 0-0 @ 2.96% 3-3 @ 2.13% Other @ 0.44% Total : 20.75% | 1-2 @ 6.06% 0-1 @ 4.1% 2-3 @ 2.99% 0-2 @ 2.84% 1-3 @ 2.8% 0-3 @ 1.31% 2-4 @ 1.04% 1-4 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.48% Total : 24.57% |