Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 58.11%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.42%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.78%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 0-1 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.