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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 40.78%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 35.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.19%) and 0-2 (5.82%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 2-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Ajax |
| 35.47% ( | 23.74% | 40.78% ( |
| Both teams to score 62.22% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.2% | 39.8% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.84% ( | 62.15% ( |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.6% ( | 22.4% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.08% ( | 55.91% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.18% ( | 19.81% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.11% ( | 51.89% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 8.04% 1-0 @ 6.64% ( 2-0 @ 4.97% ( 3-1 @ 4.01% 3-2 @ 3.25% ( 3-0 @ 2.48% 4-1 @ 1.5% 4-2 @ 1.21% 4-0 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 2.46% Total : 35.48% | 1-1 @ 10.74% 2-2 @ 6.51% 0-0 @ 4.44% 3-3 @ 1.75% Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.73% | 1-2 @ 8.7% ( 0-1 @ 7.19% ( 0-2 @ 5.82% ( 1-3 @ 4.7% ( 2-3 @ 3.51% 0-3 @ 3.14% 1-4 @ 1.9% 2-4 @ 1.42% 0-4 @ 1.27% Other @ 3.14% Total : 40.78% |